Earth Systems Observatory

⊠ EXIT FULL

KP — —

TIDE —%

EQ —

NET ○

🌐 Now

⚠ Risk

🔗 Explore

📅 History

🔍 Analyze

📊 Physics State live ▾

Geo Kp

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loading…

Moon Align

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EQ Score

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Solar Flux

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F10.7 SFU

Schumann

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Seismic 24h

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M4.5+ events

G-R b-VALUE

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Gutenberg-Richter

Dst Index

— nT

ring current

SW Speed

— km/s

solar wind

IMF Bz

— nT

south=active

Proton Flux

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pfu ≥10 MeV

ENSO Phase

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Niño3.4

DHW

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Coral stress

MJO PHASE

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Madden-Julian Osc.

CME STORM

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3-day forecast

LOD

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IERS EOP

🔍 Active Insights ▾

☄ Space Weather Alerts ▾

Loading NOAA alerts…

Source: NOAA SWPC alerts · updates every 30 min

🌊 Official Tsunami Warnings ▸

⚙ Focal Mechanism Ratio ▾

Loading moment tensor data…

📡 Seismicity Rate / Strain Proxy ▾

Computing… (M3+, last 14 days)

🛰 API Health — ▾

⬤ NOAA SWPC —

⬤ USGS FDSN —

⬤ Open-Meteo —

⬤ GOES Proton —

⬤ DSCOVR Wind —

⬤ Kyoto Dst —

⬤ IERS LOD —

⬤ GCMT FocalMech —

Last checked: —

⚡ System State ▾

1-Mo (Proj)

1 Year

5 Years

Solar Cycle

YoY Δ

Grand Cycle

ℹ Projections are model-derived, not historical measurements

📡 Active Readings 0 layers ▾

Toggle layers in the left panel [ to see readings here.

🔗 Cross-Layer Signals ▾

🔍 Deep Analysis Stress · Lag · Spectral · Chaos · Cause

Pattern Clusters

ALL STRONG OBSCURE

Click any cluster to read the science. Bar = published effect size.

▸ WELL ESTABLISHED

Ocean–Climate–Ionosphere

SST · Wind · Solar · Ionospheric TEC

▾

85%

SST anomalies drive atmospheric circulation and modulate ionospheric TEC via upward propagating waves · Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, J. Atm. Sol-Terr. Phys 1997

EM–Cavity Resonance

Schumann · Kp · Ionospheric TEC · Solar Wind

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78%

Earth-ionosphere cavity modes directly respond to solar wind pressure and geomagnetic disturbances · Williams, Science 1992; Nickolaenko & Hayakawa 2002

Core → Lithosphere Cascade

Geotherm · Gravity · Magnetic · Seismic · Volcanic

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72%

Mantle convection drives plate motion, gravity anomalies, geothermal gradients and controls spatial distribution of seismicity and volcanism · Anderson, Science 2001

Cosmic Ray → Cloud → Climate

Cosmic Ray · SST · Solar Irradiance

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68%

3–4% variation in global cloud cover correlates with cosmic ray flux over the solar cycle via ion-nucleation of aerosols · Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, J. Atm. Sol-Terr. Phys 1997; CLOUD experiment, CERN 2011

▸ MODERATE EVIDENCE

Tidal Stress → Seismic Triggering

Tidal Force · Seismic · Volcanic

▾

58%

Lunisolar tidal stress modulates fault slip probability — effect clearest in shallow oceanic thrust faults near syzygy · Tanaka et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 2002; Cochran et al., Science 2004

Solar Proton Density → M5+ Seismicity

Solar Wind · Kp · Seismic

▾

53%

Clear correlation (p < 10⁻⁵) between solar proton density and M>5.6 earthquakes with 1-day lag via reverse piezoelectric effect · Marchitelli et al., Nature Scientific Reports 2020

Geomagnetic Storm → Earthquake Lag

Kp · Cosmic Ray · Seismic

▾

48%

M≥7.5 earthquakes show statistically significant increase ~27–28 days after intense geomagnetic storms via Lorentz force in fault zones · Urata et al. 2018; PMC study 1932–2016 Kp analysis

▸ OBSCURE & CONTESTED — Research Hypotheses

⚠ NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE — The correlations below are active areas of scientific research with contested or unconfirmed mechanisms. They appear in peer-reviewed literature but have not been validated as operational forecast tools. Do not use these to make decisions about hazard preparation, evacuation, or emergency response.

Geomagnetic Jerk → Seismic Swarms

Magnetic · Kp · Seismic

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44%

Geomagnetic jerks (abrupt secular variation slope changes from core torsional oscillations) coincide with global seismic swarm episodes · Florindo & Alfonsi, Ann. Geofis. 1995; De Michelis et al. 2005 (Sumatra M9.3 possibly triggered a jerk)

Earth Rotation Slowdown → Seismicity

Tidal Force · Seismic · Volcanic

▾

65%

Periods of slower Earth rotation (longer days) correlate with enhanced global seismicity — >65% of M7+ events occur during LOD maxima. Caribbean tectonism peaks forecast for ~2030 · Bendick & Bilham, Geophys. Res. Lett. 2017; Frontiers Earth Sci. 2022

Lithosphere–Atm–Ionosphere (LAIC)

Cosmic Ray · Ionospheric TEC · Seismic

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41%

Pre-seismic radon outgassing ionises the boundary layer, altering atmospheric conductivity and producing measurable TEC anomalies 5–10 days before M>6 earthquakes · LAIC model; Pulinets & Ouzounov 2011; Geosciences 2024

Solar Grand Cycle → Volcanism

Solar Irradiance · Volcanic · Kp

▾

38%

Correlation r=0.84 (p=0.01) between volcanic eruption frequency 1868–1950 and solar magnetic cycles of southern polarity. 350-yr grand cycle matches both. Also matches Jupiter's ~11.86-yr orbital period · Zharkova et al., Global J. Sci. Research 2023; Frontiers Earth Sci. 2025

Core Oscillation → Surface EM

Kp · Magnetic · Schumann

▾

35%

6-year torsional oscillations of Earth's fluid outer core correlate with LOD variations and geomagnetic jerks, producing surface EM signatures detectable in Schumann cavity modes · Nature Comms 2020; ScienceDirect 2018 (6-yr westward rotation)

Ocean Heat → Fault Pore Pressure

SST · Seismic · Geothermal

▾

32%

SST anomalies alter ocean loading on submarine faults and modulate hydrothermal pore pressure gradients. Weak but detectable correlation with shallow (<30km) submarine seismicity. Under active investigation · Tolstoy et al., Science 2002

Muon Flux → Fault Zone Trigger

Cosmic Ray · Seismic · Kp

▾

28%

High-energy muons from cosmic rays penetrate crust to 10+ km depth. In seismogenic zones near failure threshold, muon-induced nuclear-electromagnetic cascades may provide the final trigger increment · Tsarev & Chechin 1988; Science.gov review; LSTM classification 84.47% accuracy (Atmosphere 2024)

Large Low-Shear-Velocity Provinces

Gravity · Magnetic · Geothermal

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55%

Two antipodal thermochemical superplume structures at the core-mantle boundary control long-wavelength gravity, heat flow patterns and magnetic field geometry. Their edges correlate spatially with deep-focus seismicity and hotspot chains · McNamara & Zhong, Nature 2005; ScienceDirect LLSVP 2018

NOTE: Correlation % reflects published effect sizes or explained variance — not certainty of causation. Well Established clusters are backed by robust replication; Moderate Evidence clusters are directionally supported but have significant uncertainty; Obscure & Contested clusters are research hypotheses only and must not be used for operational hazard assessment. For real-time official alerts see USGS earthquake.usgs.gov, NOAA tsunami.gov, and NWS weather.gov.

🔍 Explore Lag & Spectral →

🌐 Geomagnetic — 30 days

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Mean Kp

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Peak Kp

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G1+ Events

🌍 Seismicity — 30 days

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M4.5+ Events

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Largest

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M7+ Count

↓ Full charts & timeline in the panel below

〰 Spectral & Wavelet Analysis →

⚠ Hazard Forecast

Press REFRESH to load live data

🪸 CORAL BLEACHING RISK LOADING…

Fetching DHW data…

DHW: Copernicus Marine · NOAA Coral Reef Watch

🌊 EL NIÑO 2026 LOADING…

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El Niño prob (H2 2026) —

Source: NOAA/IRI consensus · fetching…

🔬 EL NIÑO CASCADE

Loading cascade data…

Press ↻ REFRESH to fetch live data from
USGS · NOAA SWPC · Open-Meteo · NHC
Auto-refreshes every 10 minutes while tab is open

ⓘ Research-grade · NOT an official warning system · emergencies: USGS · NHC · PTWC

⛓ Chain & Cause Analysis →

▶ 📅 Timeline

Loading historical data…

▶ 📈 Charts

Time Series

Corr Matrix

Anomalies

Export

SESSION DATA Charts show data collected since page load. Historical engine coming soon →

Activate layers to see
live time-series plots

Layer Correlation Matrix

❓ What am I looking at?

A heatmap of Pearson correlations between all active layer pairs. Each cell color shows strength (cyan=positive, red=negative). The number shows r (−1 to +1) with p-value significance. Only pairs marked ✱ or ✱✱ should be treated as potentially meaningful.

Pairwise correlation. Blue=positive, Red=negative. SESSION DATA

■ Strong negative□ None■ Strong positive

Deviations from rolling mean across active layers.

Activate layers to detect anomalies

Download collected session data for external analysis.

CSV exports include timestamped rows for all active layer series.
JSON snapshot includes baselines, quake catalog, solar indices, and layer states.
SITREP generates a plain-text situation report you can copy into briefings.

▶ 📅 30-Day Outlook

MODEL PROJECTED Risk levels computed from lunar cycle, solar cycle phase & physics models — not real forecast data.

Critical Watch Advisory Clear

ESO PANEL

🔍 Deep Analysis Engine

? Hover tabs for help D or ESC to close

⊠ CLOSE

Kp —

EQ —

ENSO —

🔥 —

🔴 Stress

↔ Lag

〰 Spectral

🌀 Chaos

⛓ Cause

Earth Systems Stress Index

❓ What am I looking at?

A composite 0–100 score measuring how many Earth systems are simultaneously elevated above background levels. Higher scores indicate multiple systems (seismic, solar, geomagnetic, tidal) are active at once. Score >65 triggers an auto-discovery entry.

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COMPUTING

Composite weighted Z-score across all active layers. Score 0–100 reflects how far current Earth system state deviates from baseline. >70 = rare compound event window.

Cross-Correlation Lag Explorer

❓ What am I looking at?

Tests whether one layer predicts another with a time delay (0–90 days). The bar chart shows correlation strength at each lag. A tall bar at lag=27 days between Kp and seismicity, for example, suggests a ~27-day geomagnetic–earthquake relationship.

→

Select two layers to explore time-delayed relationships

〰 Spectral Analysis

FFT — Period Decomposition

❓ What am I looking at?

FFT decomposes a layer's time series into periodic cycles. Peaks = dominant periods. Known Earth cycles: ~14 days (tidal), ~27 days (solar rotation), ~29.5 days (lunar month).

Select a layer to decompose into frequency components

Wavelet Coherence — Time-Frequency

Warm colors = two layers oscillating in sync at that period and time. Detects intermittent coupling that FFT averages out.

Layer A

Layer B

Low coherencePeriod →High coherence

Waiting for data…

🌀 Chaos — Non-linear Analysis

Phase-Space Attractor

❓ What am I looking at?

Plots each point as (current value, value 1 step ago). Closed loop = periodic oscillation. Scattered cloud = noisy/chaotic signal. Strange attractor = bounded chaos.

Phase-space embedding — circular = oscillation, spiral = convergence, scattered = chaos

Mutual Information Matrix

❓ What am I looking at?

MI captures non-linear dependencies — quadratic, threshold, and time-lagged effects — that Pearson correlation misses. Higher = more shared information between layers.

Non-linear dependency across all layer pairs. Pink bars = MI substantially exceeds Pearson prediction.

⛓ Cause — Cascade & Discovery

⛓ Chain of Events

Scientific status: Known and contested physical linkages. Chains 9–11 are research-level — not operational forecasts.

🪐 Planetary Gravitational Forcing

Tidal gravitational acceleration on Earth from each solar system body. Alignment events may correlate with solar activity and seismicity (research-level).

🔢 Novel Synthetic Indices

🔍 Auto-Discovery Log 0 found

Pattern detection runs every 30 s across all active layer combinations.

📐 Detection methodology

Thresholds: Score >65/100, |r|>0.5, spectral peak >60%, MI bonus >0.15, planet alignment <15°. No Bonferroni correction — treat as hypothesis leads.

Collecting data — discoveries will appear here

📈 Hindcast Validation

Prediction snapshots saved every 6 hours, verified 48 hours later against USGS M5.5+ catalog.

Loading hindcast record…

🔬 Hypothesis Board 0 hypotheses

Save Discovery Log entries as hypotheses. Auto-checked every 30 min against live data.

No hypotheses yet — check Discovery Log to save one.

📋 Research Thesis

Select a thesis above to enter focused research mode.

Field Guide

Overview

Layers

Reading

Tips

What is ESO?

Earth Systems Observatory is a real-time dashboard that combines data from space weather, seismic, atmospheric, and ocean monitoring networks into a single view. Its core idea: Earth's systems don't operate in isolation — solar activity influences seismicity, tidal forces stress fault zones, and ionospheric changes can precede earthquakes.

This is a research and situational-awareness tool, not a prediction engine. Correlations shown are backed by peer-reviewed science, but are probabilistic, not deterministic.

How to use it

1️⃣

Turn on layers

Use the left panel to toggle data layers. Start with Seismic + Geomagnetic Kp + Tidal Force for the most informative trio.

2️⃣

Check the status strip

The bar across the top shows key real-time indicators: Kp index, earthquake risk, syzygy alignment, solar flares, and network status. Hover each metric for an explanation.

3️⃣

Explore correlations

Open the 🔗 Explore tab to see which cross-system relationships are scientifically validated. Click any card to expand the evidence and see if conditions today match the pattern.

4️⃣

Check Risk & Forecast

The ⚠ Risk tab synthesizes all active signals into a composite risk assessment for the next 24–72 hours.

5️⃣

Deep Analysis

Click 🔍 Analyze (or press D) for an AI narrative that explains everything happening right now across all active layers.

Panel layout

◀

Left panel

Layer controls — turn data layers on/off by domain. Press ☰ or the left edge to collapse.

🗺

Center map

Interactive Leaflet map. Zoom with scroll, drag to pan. Click any area to query it with "Ask ESO".

▶

Right panel

Data tabs — Now, Risk, Explore, History, Analyze. Drag the left edge to resize. Press F for fullscreen.

☀️ Space Weather

🟡

Solar Irradiance

Total solar energy reaching Earth. Drives the ~11-year solar cycle and long-term climate. Currently Solar Cycle 25, approaching maximum.

🟣

Geomagnetic Kp

Key indicator of space weather activity. Scale 0–9. Kp ≥ 5 = geomagnetic storm. Auroras visible at lower latitudes. GPS may drift. Radio disruption possible.

🩷

Cosmic Ray Flux

High-energy particles from deep space. Rises when solar activity is low (less magnetic shielding). Possible role in cloud nucleation and climate variability.

🟢

Solar Wind Pressure

Stream of particles from the Sun. Elevated pressure → compressed magnetosphere → higher Kp → geomagnetic storm risk.

🟠

X-Ray / Solar Flares

Solar X-ray output. C → M → X class. X-class flares can disrupt HF radio within minutes and cause satellite drag. NOAA GOES real-time.

🌋 Core & Crust

🔴

Seismic Activity

M4.5+ earthquakes past 24–48 h from USGS. Dot size = magnitude. Color = depth (red = shallow, blue = deep). Shallow coastal quakes carry tsunami risk.

🔵

Magnetic Field

Earth's dipole field strength. The South Atlantic Anomaly is a large weak-field region. Poles are drifting ~50 km/year. Affects satellite radiation exposure.

🟠

Volcanic Activity

Active volcanoes from Smithsonian GVP. Color = alert level. Concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire and mid-ocean ridges.

🩵

Gravity Anomaly

Subtle gravitational variations from density differences in the crust. Mountains = positive, trenches = negative. From NASA GRACE satellite.

🔴

Geothermal Heat

Heat escaping from Earth's interior (mW/m²). High values at mid-ocean ridges, hotspots, and volcanic arcs. Drives plate tectonics.

🌤️ Atmosphere

🟢

Wind Speed

Surface winds at 10m altitude. Shows atmospheric circulation, storm systems, jet stream. Real-time from Open-Meteo global grid.

🟠

Schumann Resonance

EM standing waves in the Earth-ionosphere cavity (~7.83 Hz base). Driven by global lightning. Changes with solar and ionospheric disturbances.

🩵

Ionospheric TEC

Free electron density in the ionosphere. Affects GPS accuracy. Elevated by solar flares, disturbed by storms. Can show anomalies before large earthquakes (LAIC effect).

🔵

Atmospheric Pressure

Sea-level air pressure showing weather systems. High pressure = fair weather, low pressure = storms. Contour spacing shows wind intensity.

🌊 Oceans

🔵

Sea Surface Temp

Ocean surface temperature. Anomalies influence hurricane intensity, fisheries, and global climate patterns. El Niño visible as warm central Pacific patch.

🩵

Tidal Force

Gravitational pull of Moon + Sun. Peaks at new/full moon (syzygy). Research shows elevated fault-slip probability during tidal maxima near subduction zones.

Data source badges

Each layer in the left panel shows a badge indicating its data source type:

LIVEReal-time data fetched from external APIs (USGS, NOAA, Open-Meteo). Updated every few minutes. If the NET indicator shows ○ MODELS, APIs are temporarily unavailable and the system falls back to physics models.

MODELDerived from established physics models (e.g. World Magnetic Model, GRACE gravity). These are slow-changing datasets updated annually — not real-time but highly accurate.

CALCCalculated in real-time from other data sources or deterministic formulas. E.g. tidal force is calculated from precise lunar/solar orbital mechanics with no external API needed.

Understanding Kp

The Kp index is the most important space weather indicator in ESO. Here's how to read it:

0–2Quiet — typical quiet Sun conditions. No significant effects.

3–4Unsettled/Active — minor aurora at high latitudes. Slight GPS degradation.

5–6G1–G2 Storm — auroras visible to 50° latitude. Power grid fluctuations possible.

7–9G3–G5 Storm — widespread aurora, satellite drag, HF radio blackout. Rare events (Carrington-class at Kp=9).

Correlation clusters

The 🔗 Explore tab shows scientifically documented relationships between Earth systems. Each card includes:

🔗

Cluster name + layers involved

Which data layers participate in this correlation. Turn those layers on to see them highlighted on the map.

📖

Evidence + mechanism

Click a card to expand it and see the peer-reviewed paper supporting the correlation and the physical mechanism proposed.

⚡

Active condition note

If current conditions match the trigger state for a correlation, a note appears below the evidence text highlighting the live match.

History tab — time periods

1 Month / 1 Year / 5 Years

Short to medium-term trends. Good for spotting seasonal patterns and recent anomalies.

Solar Cycle (11 yr)

One complete solar cycle. Shows the rise and fall of solar activity and its effects on seismicity, cosmic rays, and climate.

YoY Δ

Year-over-year change. Highlights which systems are trending up or down compared to the same period last year.

Grand Cycle (27 yr)

Multi-decadal view spanning ~2.5 solar cycles. Reveals long-period oscillations in Earth's coupled systems.

Keyboard shortcuts

1 2 3 4

Switch between Now, Risk, Explore, History tabs

Open Deep Analysis (🔍 Analyze)

Toggle fullscreen panel mode (hides map)

Open / close this Field Guide

Esc

Exit fullscreen / close overlays

Best practices

Start simple: enable just Seismic + Kp + Tidal layers. Watch how they interact over a few days — this is the core Earth-Sun-Moon triangle.

When Kp is elevated (≥5), open Explore → look for "Solar Proton Density → Seismicity" and "Geomagnetic Storm → Earthquake Lag" clusters to see if conditions match.

After a major earthquake, check Syzygy % in the status bar. High alignment (≥80%) + shallow subduction zone = elevated tsunami consideration window.

Use the Ask ESO button (💬) to query specific regions or ask natural-language questions about current conditions — e.g. "Why is the Kp high today?" or "What is happening in the Pacific Ring of Fire?"

Click the 🔔 bell to open the Alerts drawer. Use the filter buttons (Critical, Watch, Advisory) to focus on what matters most right now.

If NET shows ○ MODELS, the dashboard is running on built-in physics models (no external internet needed). Data is still meaningful but is estimated rather than measured. Click NET to retry live connections.

Understanding uncertainty

ESO aggregates data from scientific sources and applies established correlation research. However:

⚠

Correlations are statistical, not causal. A high-risk window means conditions historically associated with elevated activity — not a prediction of a specific event.

🔬

Some correlations shown (e.g. LAIC, Solar-Seismic) are active research areas with legitimate scientific debate. ESO cites the papers — read the evidence yourself.

📡

Some layers (Schumann, Ionospheric TEC, Cosmic Ray) are physics model estimates, not direct sensor readings. They reflect expected conditions based on known drivers.