earth-systems-observatory

🌍 Earth Systems Observatory (ESO)

A real-time geophysical monitoring dashboard and scientific research platform for cross-domain Earth systems analysis — seismicity, space weather, tidal forces, climate, and ionospheric activity.

→ Open the Live App

What It Does

ESO fetches and visualizes live data from multiple scientific agencies (NOAA, USGS, NASA, IERS) and overlays them on an interactive world map. It is also a research tool for testing hypotheses about correlations between geophysical domains.

Real-time data streams:

Seismicity — USGS earthquake catalog (M3–M8+, 24h / 7d / 30d, global or regional)
Space weather — NOAA Kp index, DSCOVR solar wind (Bz, speed, density), GOES X-ray flares, proton flux, Dst ring current, F10.7 solar flux
Tidal forcing — Meeus lunar phase algorithm (sub-degree accuracy), syzygy detection
Climate — SST anomalies, ENSO phase (Nino3.4), MJO phase, precipitation grid
Earth rotation — IERS Length of Day (LOD) excess from Paris Observatory EOP C04 series
Tsunami — GDACS + USGS official warning feeds

Analysis features:

Aftershock clustering (DBSCAN-like, 2°/72h)
Gutenberg-Richter b-value (max-likelihood, real-time + time series)
Pearson correlation with BH-FDR correction, Morlet wavelet coherence, mutual information permutation tests
Historical seismicity heatmap (30-day density overlay)
Beginner / Expert mode toggle with guided tour

Thesis Research

ESO includes a built-in scientific thesis framework for pre-registered hypothesis testing.

Thesis A — Severe Geomagnetic Storms and Subduction Zone Seismicity

Status: CONCLUDED (2026-04-02)

Tests whether extreme solar wind events (Bz ≤ −10 nT) trigger M7.0+ subduction zone earthquakes within a 96-hour window.

Primary result: NULL — p = 0.663 over 15-year catalog. The prior 5-year p = 0.027 was a false positive.
Exploratory finding: Bz ≤ −12 nT (severe storms only) → p = 0.0027, RR = 3.6×, n = 33 triggers, 7 hits (Bonferroni-corrected).
Now in prospective replication phase — auto-logging new Bz ≤ −12 nT trigger events for 2–3 years.
See: research/thesis-a/Thesis A — Severe Geomagnetic Storms and Subduction Zone Seismicity.pdf

Thesis B — Tidal Triggering of Great Earthquakes

Status: CONCLUDED (2026-04)

Tests whether M7.5+ earthquakes occur at higher rates during syzygy windows (±3 days of new/full moon).

Result: NULL — p = 0.9175, RR = 0.871×, N = 147. Tidal triggering not supported. Ide et al. (2016, Nature Geoscience) not replicated.
All robustness checks (permutation test, magnitude sweep M7.0–8.5+, temporal split, tectonic zone breakdown) confirm null.
See: research/thesis-b/Thesis B — Tidal Triggering — Research Conclusions.pdf

Thesis C — El Niño Marine Heatwave Cascade

Status: IN PROGRESS

Tests whether ENSO → SST → marine heatwave → coral bleaching → fishery disruption cascade dynamics have detectable signatures in cross-domain geophysical data.

Thesis D — ENSO → Wildfire → Carbon Chain

Status: IN PROGRESS

Tests whether El Niño-driven precipitation deficits in SE Asia, Australia, and the Amazon predictably amplify fire weather and atmospheric carbon pulse dynamics.

Project Structure

earth-systems-observatory/
│
├── earth-observatory-p3.html       ← Live app (open this in browser)
├── earth-observatory-p3.min.html   ← Minified build
├── README.md
├── VERSIONS.md
│
├── src/                            ← Source files (edit these)
│   ├── earth-observatory-modular.html   HTML shell
│   ├── eso-style.css                    All CSS
│   ├── eso-stats.js                     Math/stats library (no DOM deps)
│   ├── eso-core.js                      State, map, UI navigation, layers
│   ├── eso-data.js                      API fetches, scoring, data processing
│   ├── eso-ui.js                        Charts, analysis panels, notifications
│   ├── eso-thesis.js                    Generic thesis framework
│   ├── eso-elnino.js                    El Niño / ENSO intelligence engine
│   ├── thesis-a-solar-seismic.js        Thesis A implementation
│   ├── thesis-b-tidal-seismic.js        Thesis B implementation
│   └── build.py                         Merges src/ → earth-observatory-p3.html
│
├── research/                       ← Study design & conclusions
│   ├── thesis-a/
│   │   ├── Thesis A — Severe Geomagnetic Storms and Subduction Zone Seismicity.pdf
│   │   └── backfill-thesis-a.py         15-yr NASA OMNI + USGS analysis
│   ├── thesis-b/
│   │   ├── Thesis B — Tidal Triggering of Great Earthquakes — Research Design.pdf
│   │   ├── Thesis B — Tidal Triggering — Research Conclusions.pdf
│   │   └── backfill-thesis-b.py         50-yr USGS M7.0+ tidal analysis
│   └── elnino/
│       └── backfill-elnino.py           NOAA ONI historical series (1950–present)
│
├── data/                           ← Backfill JSON caches
│   ├── thesis-a-backfill.json
│   ├── thesis-b-backfill.json
│   └── elnino-backfill.json
│
├── docs/                           ← Project documentation
│   ├── ESO-project-summary.md
│   ├── ESO-research-roadmap.md
│   └── ESO-Phase4-Version-Roadmap.docx
│
└── releases/                       ← Release snapshots
    ├── v3.0/
    └── v4.0/

Running Locally

Open earth-observatory-p3.html directly in any modern browser. No server required — all API calls are made client-side.

To rebuild after editing source files:

cd src
python3 build.py          # builds ../earth-observatory-p3.html
python3 build.py --both   # builds both standard and minified versions

Data Sources

Domain	Source
Seismicity	USGS FDSNWS
Space weather / geomagnetic	NOAA SWPC
Solar wind	NASA DSCOVR (OMNI)
Satellite imagery	NASA GIBS (MODIS Terra)
Sea surface temperature	NASA GHRSST MUR + NOAA
ENSO forecast	IRI/CPC official forecast + NOAA ONI
Marine heatwaves / coral bleaching	Copernicus Marine + NOAA Coral Reef Watch
Wildfire	NASA FIRMS (MODIS C6.1 NRT)
Earth rotation (LOD)	IERS Paris Observatory EOP C04
Focal mechanisms	GCMT / USGS moment tensors
Tsunami warnings	GDACS + USGS
Precipitation	Open-Meteo